Friday, January 3, 2014

O' Crystal Ball, What Say You?

Over the last few days I've been reading a lot of predictions about the upcoming year, and while I make no claims at being the greatest prognosticator I would like to throw some out there.

Eight Predictions Guaranteed to Fail

1. Wizards of the Coast will not only take back the top spot in the role-playing games industry from Pazio, but the new edition of the game will produce a solid series of products from the get go that will help reinvigorate the product line and the hobby as a whole.

2. At least one major book seller, probably Barnes and Nobel, will fold during the upcoming year taking away another major retailer from the hobby and hurting the overall industry further by reducing its reach into the wider hobby marketplace.

3. Through the efforts of various members of the blogging community we will see a minor reemergence of the blog-o-sphere with new community projects and conversations leading the way. 

4. Palladium Books will continue its slow recovery and will begin to reassert its presence in the hobby.

5. This blog will complete two major story arcs before the year is out without slowing down its regular update schedule.

6. An updated, and improved, version of the Great Blog Roll Call will be produced.

7. One of the major role-playing game companies (Wizards, Mongoose, Green Ronin, Pazio, or Games Workshop) will test out a print on demand system to decrease their overhead cost and to increase their profit margin on all their products.

8. At least one of the Big Box Retailers (Wal-Mart, Target, or K-Mart) will begin to carry role-playing game materials and we'll really have to see where the hobby goes from there.

8 comments:

  1. They are some bold predictions. I agree with 3, 5, 6 and 7 :)

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    1. I'm surprised that you don't agree with number 1. Of all the predictions its the most certain for the upcoming year (now next year on the other hand . . .)

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  2. I suck at predicting anything, but if I may ride your coattails and provided commentary from the peanut gallery:

    1. I hope so. No dig on Paizo, but I didn't enjoy 3.5 and even though I haven't played Pathfinder, since it's based on 3.5, I just don't dig the bloat. I would love to see D&D take the top spot back.
    2. More than one wouldn't surprise me in the least.
    3. Most certainly good sir!
    4. So much potential there, but his system needs to be completely revamped and updated to something more modern.
    5. That's for you to provide, no?
    6. I hope so. You really did a great job.
    7. I would think that is a sound business decision, and I wouldn't be shocked if it became a trend.
    8. Target has been carrying some niche board games, so I think it will be them to give carrying RPGs a shot.

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    1. Ride away my friend!

      On number 8, of all the big box stores I'm hoping that Wal-Mart is the one to get the RPGs. It has the largest market share and it will force the price down, rather than up.

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    2. I agree, however, Wal-Mart has the dubious power of being able to dictate price to manufacturers. "If you don't sell it to us for x, then we don't sell your product at y price, or at all for that matter." It would drive down the prices somewhat, and the exposure would be fantastic for the hobby, but I don't think any of the major publishers would be willing to shoulder the risk. Wal-Mart's buying position and power are great, but they wield it like a 10-ton sledgehammer, and it's almost like making a deal with the devil. Target, on the other hand, will charge retail price initially. Who knows? I'll agree with the prediction, which is speculation of course, but even guessing who'll take the first stab at it is a double-blind shot in the dark from behind the back.

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    3. Oh, Hasbro has a pretty big hammer to swing too. So I think that if anyone were able to counter that 10 ton sledge it would be them.

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  3. Very interesting assertions my friend. I like a lot of them and though bold, as Mark Knights noted, I am surprised as how viable they sound.

    Not surprised because I didn't think you personally would come up with these but because most similar predictions are usually grander and less likely to happen. These seem sensible. Nicely done.

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    1. And that's how I know that they're bound to fail, they make sense.

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